Mathematical Modeling of Epidemic Diseases


主讲人:王稳地 西南大学教授


地点:腾讯会议 478 127 447


主讲人介绍:王稳地,西南大学二级教授,博士生导师, 中国生物数学学会副理事长,2005年获得重庆市名师称号, 2018年获得重庆市最美教师称号;从事生物数学的研究,在种群动力学和传染病动力学建模和分析方面发表论文100多篇,7次入选Elsevier数学类高引用论文作者;已经主持国家自然科学基金课题7项、教育部项目2项,目前担任两个国际刊物编委。

内容介绍:First, I will talk about scarlet fever, which is an acute respiratory infectious disease with the increasing incidence rate from 2011 throughout the world. We propose the mathematical models that incorporate both direct transmissions and indirect transmissions of scarlet fever. The threshold conditions for disease invasion are obtained in terms of the basic reproduction number. The peak value, final size and epidemic time in a seasonal prevalence are investigated numerically. Furthermore, the effects of seasonal fluctuations on disease outbreak are also studied on the basis of real data in China. Second, I introduce the model of age-structured pertussis model with covert infection. It is shown that although the vaccine coverage rate is relatively high, the model has a backward bifurcation for a larger covert infection rate. This highlights the importance to control the covert infections.

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